Is the United States Going to Make a Deal With Iran? What Could Happen Next

The possibility of a new deal between the United States and Iran has become one of the biggest questions in international politics. After months of conflict, failed negotiations, pressure over Iran’s nuclear program, and the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, both countries face enormous pressure to find a way forward.

But as of August 19, 2026, a final U.S.-Iran agreement does not appear to be close. In fact, President Donald Trump said on August 18 that there were no talks taking place and none were scheduled, despite reports of continuing diplomatic contacts and earlier claims that negotiations were active. (Reuters)

So, could the United States and Iran still reach a deal? The answer is yes—but it would be extremely difficult.

The 60-Day Agreement

The latest diplomatic effort began with a memorandum of understanding reached in June 2026. The agreement was intended to stop military operations and create a pathway toward a broader settlement involving Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The agreement gave the two sides roughly 60 days to negotiate a longer-term arrangement. However, the deadline expired on August 17 without a comprehensive peace agreement. Both Washington and Tehran accused the other side of violating or failing to implement important parts of the arrangement. 

The collapse of that deadline has made the possibility of a new deal much more uncertain.

Why Does the United States Want a Deal?

For Washington, one of the most important objectives is preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Trump has repeatedly said that Iran cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons and has rejected an agreement that he believes would not sufficiently address that issue. (Reuters)

The United States also has major economic and security interests in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is one of the world's most important energy routes. Prolonged disruption has contributed to higher oil prices and increased fuel costs. U.S. consumers have already experienced significant increases in gasoline prices during the conflict. (The Guardian)

Therefore, Washington has several reasons to prefer diplomacy if diplomacy can achieve its objectives without requiring another prolonged military campaign.

What Does Iran Want?

Iran's demands are very different.

Tehran has called for an end to U.S. military pressure, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and changes to the blockade and maritime situation around the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)

Iran also wants assurances about its sovereignty and security.

From Tehran's perspective, agreeing to major restrictions without receiving substantial economic and security benefits could be politically dangerous.

This is one of the biggest obstacles to an agreement: Washington wants security guarantees and nuclear restrictions, while Tehran wants sanctions relief and an end to military pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz Is a Major Problem

The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the central issues in negotiations.

The waterway is critical for global energy shipments, meaning any prolonged disruption can affect countries far beyond the Middle East.

Iran has maintained that the strait's future is connected to the broader conflict and U.S. actions. Washington, meanwhile, has insisted that maritime traffic should remain open and has maintained military pressure in the region. (Reuters)

This makes the strait both an economic issue and a strategic bargaining tool.

A possible future agreement could therefore involve a phased reopening of shipping in exchange for specific U.S. concessions and Iranian commitments.

Why Are Negotiations So Difficult?

The biggest problem is trust.

The United States and Iran have decades of hostility behind them. The earlier nuclear agreement—the 2015 JCPOA—collapsed after the United States withdrew from it in 2018. Analysts have argued that rebuilding trust after years of confrontation is extremely difficult. (Financial Times)

The latest conflict has made that problem even worse.

Each side believes the other could use negotiations to gain time, improve its strategic position, or avoid making meaningful concessions.

There is also a question of who can actually guarantee an agreement inside Iran. Reports indicate that divisions within Iran's leadership have complicated negotiations, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has gained greater influence during the conflict. (Le Monde.fr)

Could Secret Diplomacy Save the Deal?

Possibly.

Even when governments publicly deny negotiations, unofficial communication can continue through intermediaries.

Recent reporting has described attempts to establish backchannel communications involving Iranian power centers and U.S. officials. Other countries—including Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, Austria and Greece—have also played roles in diplomatic efforts or communications surrounding the conflict. (Axios)

This means the absence of formal negotiations does not necessarily mean diplomacy is permanently finished.

In international crises, governments sometimes publicly take a hard position while quietly exploring compromises behind the scenes.

What Could a Future Deal Look Like?

A future agreement would probably need several parts.

First, Iran could be required to accept stronger and more verifiable limits on nuclear activities.

Second, the United States could provide phased sanctions relief rather than removing all sanctions immediately.

Third, arrangements could be created to guarantee commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fourth, both sides could agree to restrictions on military actions and attacks against each other's forces.

Finally, international monitoring could be used to verify compliance.

The most realistic agreement would probably be phased, rather than a single massive treaty.

Each side would make limited concessions and receive something in return.

Three Possible Futures

There are three major possibilities.

1. A New Diplomatic Deal

This is the best-case scenario.

Behind-the-scenes negotiations resume, mediators help bridge differences, and Washington and Tehran eventually agree on a new framework.

Such a deal could reduce military tensions, reopen shipping routes and stabilize global energy markets.

2. A Long-Term Standoff

The second possibility is continued pressure without a comprehensive agreement.

The United States could maintain sanctions and military pressure while Iran refuses Washington's demands.

This could produce a prolonged period of uncertainty, with occasional diplomatic contacts but no permanent settlement.

3. Renewed Military Escalation

The most dangerous possibility is the collapse of diplomacy followed by renewed military action.

Trump has previously warned that stronger military action could return if negotiations fail. (Axios)

Another escalation could threaten shipping, energy supplies and U.S. forces across the region.

That is precisely why many governments continue pushing for diplomacy.

So, Will the USA Make a Deal With Iran?

A deal remains possible, but it is not currently imminent.

As of August 19, 2026, the official signals from Washington are particularly negative: Trump says there are no talks underway or scheduled, while the previous 60-day diplomatic framework has expired without producing a permanent agreement. 

However, the situation is not necessarily permanent.

The United States has strong reasons to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and to restore stability in the Gulf. Iran has equally strong reasons to obtain sanctions relief, reduce military pressure and restore economic activity.

Those competing interests could eventually create an incentive for both sides to return to negotiations.

The key question is not simply whether the United States and Iran want a deal.

The real question is whether they can find a deal that both governments can present as a victory rather than a surrender.

For now, the answer remains uncertain.

But if oil prices continue rising, pressure on regional governments increases, and the risk of a wider war grows, diplomacy could once again become the most attractive option for both Washington and Tehran.

The door to a U.S.-Iran deal may not be closed—but right now, it is certainly not wide open.